There's much to learn from history, but every time is different when it comes to markets. The backdrop for investing will require investors to identify how the outlook today intersects with our experiences of the past and where it differs.

What a difference a year makes. In February 2023, investors were preoccupied by the risks of rising inflation, monetary tightening and recession. This year, the focus is on disinflation, monetary easing and economic growth.

Beyond a near-term sluggish outlook for global growth, practitioners should think about three key forces which will drive long-term market risks and opportunities.

Investors need to leverage the experience of past decades while also humbly contemplating an uncertain outlook. Compared to any post-WWII period, this time really is different!

Brace for more market volatility in 2023, and orient portfolios to resilient fixed income and equity securities, and hedge fund and infrastructure managers.

Since I addressed Markets Summit 2022 back on 23 February, arguing it was time for a new investing playbook, there has been a major repricing in financial assets. The adjustment has further to run.

Investing over the next several years is going to be unlike anything we've experienced in decades. It's time to go back to the drawing board to reassess the best approach to both defence and offence in a more volatile, changing market.

Fiscal stimulus will help boost US growth to its strongest levels in decades in 2022 and European economies are poised to rebound. However, inflationary pressures will persist. Portfolios will need assets that provide downside protection, as well as strategies to capitalise on the growth ahead.

Pent up consumer demand, fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy set the stage for a sharp global recovery. It is back to the drawing board in a high growth environment.

To say a lot has changed since I spoke to you back in February at Markets Summit 2020 is an incredible understatement. Between now and Markets Summit in February 2021, I'm going to be watching three things.

In the decade ahead, ageing demographics, income inequality, market share concentration and climate change will reshape the economy, elevating the VUCA facing investors, requiring deep fundamental research to determine where best to invest.

On the positive side - still - is the US consumer, the household sector. On the negative side is synchronised global industrial deceleration, and markets underestimating the negative trajectory of the US/China relationship. Investors need to avoid chasing momentum in equity markets and yield and duration in fixed income markets.

On some measures, global equity valuations are the most attractive in several years. Risks, however, have certainly increased and in many cases are more difficult to frame.

The US might have three to five years of additional growth ahead. Global synchronised growth is likely to drive earnings growth to a higher gear that warrants current elevated valuations.

Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

Investors should question the assumption that inflation and interest rates will be "lower for longer" and instead consider that inflation could be whipped into a storm by trade, monetary and border policy.

The three main economies that will largely determine the health of the global economy remain the United States, the euro zone, and China. Each is at a different stage of its economic cycle and faces different challenges.

Since mid-February, our confidence has strengthened that the US economic recovery is moving into a new phase as the middle class becomes a bigger driver of growth.

This is not deja-vu all over again. This recovery is still middle aged and has years to go. Equity markets continue to be attractive on their own merits and especially relative to fixed income.

De-leveraging, widening inequality and structural reforms limit growth in developed markets. The US is the most advanced in addressing these challenges.